Summary
– Trade setup: Focus on sector rotation, options positioning at round numbers, and reactions to global risk cues.
– IPO watch: What to track if/when Lenskart files — unit economics, store expansion, and omnichannel profitability.
– Macro: Any movement in US–China trade discussions can swing metals, chemicals and electronics supply-chain plays.
– Gold: Jewellery margins, gold-loan NBFCs and INR sensitivity are in focus when bullion prices move sharply.
– Watchlist: Eight diversified stocks for long-term accumulation on dips, with key drivers and risks.

Global cues to watch at the open
– US equities, Treasury yields, the dollar index and crude oil remain the key global drivers for Indian risk assets. A weaker dollar and softer yields tend to support emerging markets; oil spikes usually weigh on OMCs and importers.
– Asia risk tone: Moves in major Asian indices often set the tone for domestic sentiment in early trade, especially for cyclicals and exporters.
– Earnings/newsflow: Company-specific results, guidance and block deals can override index cues on a stock-by-stock basis. Track exchange disclosures before the bell.

Nifty 50: Trade setup and strategy
– Trend bias: Identify the prevailing daily trend using the 20-DMA/50-DMA. Sustained trade above both often favours buy-on-dips; slippage below the 20-DMA raises the risk of a mean reversion to the 50-DMA.
– Intraday levels: Use the prior day’s high/low and the nearest round-number strikes above/below the previous close as reference pivots. A clean hold above the prior high tends to invite momentum buying; failure there can trigger fade trades toward VWAP.
– Breadth and participation: A healthy advance-decline ratio and strength in banks, IT and industrials typically confirms index up-moves; defensive leadership with narrow breadth calls for caution.
– Options cues: Watch where call/put open interest clusters at the nearest 100-point Nifty strikes. Rising call OI overhead signals supply zones; fresh put OI below indicates dip-buying interest. A put–call ratio trending meaningfully above 1.3 risks overbought conditions; below 0.8 suggests caution has risen.
– Risk management: Keep position sizing tight around event risk; use stop-losses and avoid averaging into losing intraday positions.

IPO watch: Lenskart — what to track
Note: As of this writing, we are not citing real-time filing status. If/when a DRHP is filed, focus on:
– Unit economics: Average order value, gross margins (frames vs lenses vs accessories), and marketing/fulfilment costs over time.
– Omnichannel metrics: Same-store sales growth, store payback periods, and the mix between online and offline sales.
– Store expansion: Net additions, franchise vs owned stores, and penetration beyond Tier-1 cities.
– Supply chain: In-house manufacturing/assembly benefits, private-label mix and inventory turns.
– Profitability pathway: Trajectory from contribution margin to EBITDA, and cash generation sustainability post-expansion.
– Key risks: Competitive intensity (domestic and global), discounting pressure, import dependencies, and any regulatory changes around medical devices/optical retail.

US–China trade talks: Why they matter for Indian markets
– Metals and chemicals: Tariff headlines and demand signals from China can move global prices, influencing India’s steel, non-ferrous and specialty chemicals names.
– Electronics supply chain: Any easing/tightening around semiconductors and components affects India’s EMS players and smartphone/IT hardware assemblers.
– IT services sentiment: Geopolitical thaw typically supports risk-on, aiding large-cap IT; renewed friction can compress sentiment-led multiples.
– Currency and commodities: Shifts in global growth expectations impact the dollar, crude oil and thereby INR; exporters/importers react accordingly.

Gold prices: What to watch and how it spills into equities
– Jewellery retailers: Rapid rises in bullion can compress short-term gross margins and demand; steady prices support wedding-season volumes and inventory management.
– Gold-loan NBFCs: Higher gold prices lift loan-to-value buffers; watch for competitive intensity and auction trends in volatile periods.
– Currency angle: A stronger dollar tends to pressure INR and Indian gold prices; watch MCX basis moves vs COMEX alongside INR swings.

Eight stocks to consider for a diversified watchlist
Note: Long-term, staggered accumulation on dips; not recommendations. Recheck valuations, earnings and risks before acting.

1) HDFC Bank
– Why: Scale in retail + corporate, deposit franchise, and technology investments.
– Watch: NIM trajectory post-merger, deposit growth, asset quality.
– Risks: Margin compression, regulatory changes.

2) ICICI Bank
– Why: Consistent RoA/RoE improvement, balanced retail/corporate book.
– Watch: Fee income, provisioning, granular deposit growth.
– Risks: Macros, competitive pricing.

3) Larsen & Toubro
– Why: Domestic capex, energy/transmission orders, and infra execution.
– Watch: Order inflow, margin discipline, working capital.
– Risks: Project delays, commodity volatility.

4) Reliance Industries
– Why: Energy + consumer (Jio, retail) optionality; petchem cycle turn potential.
– Watch: Tariff changes, retail expansion, O2C spreads.
– Risks: Policy changes, capex intensity.

5) Bharti Airtel
– Why: ARPU tailwinds, premium positioning, 5G rollout leverage.
– Watch: Tariff actions, Africa performance, capex moderation.
– Risks: Competitive pricing, regulatory levies.

6) TCS
– Why: Resilient cash flows, broad client base, AI/cloud demand over cycle.
– Watch: Deal wins, pricing, attrition and utilization.
– Risks: US/Europe tech budgets, currency swings.

7) Muthoot Finance
– Why: Direct play on gold prices with conservative underwriting history.
– Watch: AUM growth, auction volumes, NIMs under competition.
– Risks: Gold-price volatility, regulatory tightening, competition.

8) Mahindra & Mahindra
– Why: Strong SUV cycle, product pipeline; tractor franchise offers counter-cyclical buffer.
– Watch: Launch timelines, chip availability, rural demand.
– Risks: Commodity costs, monsoon variability, EV transition.

F&O and sector cues
– Banks/financials: Options activity here often anchors index direction; watch rollovers and OI build-up in leaders.
– Metals/energy: Sensitive to global headlines; track spreads and inventory data.
– IT: Sensitive to USD moves and commentary from global peers; options skew can indicate hedging demand.
– Defensives: FMCG/pharma leadership with soft breadth is usually a caution signal for risk appetite.

Checklist for retail traders today
– Confirm the day’s key data/events (domestic and global) and align position sizing accordingly.
– Use the previous day’s high/low and VWAP for intraday bias; avoid counter-trend trades without confirmation.
– Respect stops; avoid trading during illiquid opening ticks. Scale into positions only after confirmation.

Data note
– This article intentionally avoids quoting intraday levels or live indicators. Please refer to your broker’s pre-open data, exchange announcements and company filings for the latest numbers before trading.