Published by: The Rupee Voice | www.rupeevoice.com
📊 Market Recap – Friday, March 28, 2025
The Indian equity market closed lower on the last trading session of the week, with the Nifty 50 settling at 23,519.35, down 72.60 points (–0.31%). Profit booking ahead of the fiscal year-end and expiry adjustments after F&O settlement led to a mildly negative close.
Due to Ramadan Eid, the market remains closed on Monday, March 31, with the next trading day falling on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.
🧾 Nifty 50 – Last 7 Trading Sessions Snapshot
| Date | Close | Daily Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 23,300.00 | — | — |
| Mar 19 | 23,345.00 | +45.00 | +0.19% |
| Mar 20 | 23,420.00 | +75.00 | +0.32% |
| Mar 21 | 23,390.00 | -30.00 | -0.13% |
| Mar 25 | 23,500.00 | +110.00 | +0.47% |
| Mar 27 | 23,591.95 | +91.95 | +0.39% |
| Mar 28 | 23,519.35 | -72.60 | -0.31% |
📌 Market Status: Slight pause in the uptrend, with healthy consolidation.
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Closing Price | 23,519.35 | Mild decline |
| Support Levels | 23,480 / 23,390 | Short-term demand zone |
| Resistance Levels | 23,620 / 23,800 | Upside capped for now |
| RSI (14-day) | ~59.1 | Neutral–Bullish |
| MACD | Positive | Trend still intact |
| Stochastic RSI | Mild Overbought | Could trigger pause |
🔍 Key Note:
Despite Friday’s pullback, the index remains well above the 20-DMA and shows signs of strength. No bearish reversal signal has formed yet.
Sector Watch & Institutional Activity
🔄 Sectoral Snapshot: Performance Review (Mar 18 – Mar 28, 2025)
Despite a minor dip on Friday, most major sectors have shown resilience throughout the past two weeks. Here’s how they performed:
| Sector | 2-Week Trend | Movement | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| IT | Bullish | +3.2% | Positive U.S. cues, tech optimism |
| Banking | Bullish | +2.1% | Credit growth, stable NPAs |
| FMCG | Neutral–Bullish | +0.8% | Volume demand consistent |
| Pharma | Positive | +1.5% | Fresh buying, USFDA approvals |
| Auto | Flat to Weak | -0.3% | Margin pressure, cost headwinds |
| Energy | Rangebound | -0.1% | Crude volatility |
📌 Sector Leaders: IT, Banking, Pharma
📉 Underperformers: Auto, Energy
🌍 Institutional Flow (FII/DII Activity)
Over the last two weeks, domestic and foreign institutions continued to show strong interest in Indian equities. Here’s a breakdown of net investment activity:
| Dates | FII Net Inflow (₹ Cr) | DII Net Inflow (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 – Mar 22 | +5,340 | +3,710 |
| Mar 25 – Mar 28 | +4,560 | +2,170 |
| Total (2 Weeks) | +9,900 | +5,880 |
💡 Key Observations:
- FIIs have increased allocation to Banking and IT, two heavyweight sectors in the index.
- DIIs continue to buy the dips, especially in Pharma, FMCG, and selective midcaps.
- Month-end volatility due to March expiry now behind us.
📊 Global & Domestic Factors to Watch
- 🏦 RBI MPC Preview (Early April):
Expectations are for a status quo on interest rates, but forward guidance on inflation may impact rate-sensitive sectors. - 🛢️ Crude Oil:
Brent remains in the $85–88 range; a breakout above $90 could be a risk for Energy-importing economies like India. - 💵 USD-INR:
The rupee has been stable between 82.7–83.2. A weakening dollar is good for exporters and FII inflows.
Nifty Prediction, Strategy & Stock Picks
🔮 Nifty 50 Prediction for April 1, 2025
Despite a slight pullback on Friday, the broader trend remains intact. With expiry volatility out of the way and markets closed on March 31 (Monday) for Ramadan Eid, April 1 opens a new fiscal year and a fresh monthly candle, making this session crucial for traders and investors alike.
📌 Projected Opening:
Flat to mildly positive
📊 Expected Range:
- Support Zone: 23,450 – 23,480
- Resistance Zone: 23,620 – 23,800
📈 Technical Setup at a Glance
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | ~59.1 | Bullish territory |
| MACD | Positive crossover | Uptrend intact |
| 20-DMA | ~23,400 | Price remains above |
| Stochastic RSI | Slightly Overbought | Healthy consolidation likely |
📌 Market Mood: Buy-on-dips remains the dominant strategy, as no bearish divergence or reversal has formed.
🧭 Rupee Voice Trading Strategy – April 1, 2025
🟢 For Intraday Traders:
- Buy near: 23,470–23,500
- Target: 23,620 / 23,750
- Stop-loss: 23,440
📌 Watch for IT and Private Banks for momentum.
🟡 For Positional Traders:
- Maintain long positions with trailing stop-loss at 23,350
- Upside target remains at 23,800–23,950 for early April
⭐ Rupee Voice Stock Picks for April 1, 2025
| Stock | Action | Target | Stop Loss | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infosys | Buy | ₹1,590 | ₹1,540 | Strong setup, global tailwinds |
| ICICI Bank | Buy | ₹1,125 | ₹1,085 | Momentum in BFSI |
| Cipla | Buy | ₹1,215 | ₹1,180 | Pharma pickup with low risk |
| Dabur India | Buy | ₹620 | ₹596 | Steady performer, volume breakout |
📌 Final Word from Rupee Voice
“The start of the new fiscal year often brings a fresh wave of optimism. With liquidity support from both FIIs and DIIs, and macro indicators favoring stability, we expect the Nifty to inch toward the 24,000 mark in April. Caution is advised near resistances, but the trend remains your friend.”
📅 Next Update: Post-market wrap-up on April 1
🔗 Visit: www.rupeevoice.com for daily strategy and insights
🖊️ Prepared by: Rupee Voice Research Desk
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